For over six decades since the construction of the Kariba South Bank hydroelectric power station, Zimbabwe’s (known as Southern Rhodesia until independence in 1980) grid supply had been dominated by clean energy. However, in the face of back-to-back El Niño–induced droughts, the country’s large hydropower infrastructure is faltering, making way for a coal thermal power takeover. Kennedy Nyavaya analyses how the country can effectively leverage its diverse renewable energy potential to avoid fossil fuel dependence while also sticking to its sustainable growth agenda.

Thousands of tourists that visit Kariba Dam, built along the Zambezi River that borders Zambia and Zimbabwe in Southern Africa, can attest that beyond breathtaking wildlife and picturesque valleys, the majestic south bank hydroelectric power station it houses is a marvel to the eye. Deemed the world’s biggest man-made dam based on water storage capacity, the double-curvature arch-type engineering masterstroke commissioned in the early 1960s stands at a height of 128 metres, is 620 metres long and has a 14-metre top surface. But beyond its mind-blowing aesthetics, the state-owned Kariba South Bank Station came with a future-oriented purpose to propel sustainable development through its massive renewable energy capacity.

With an initial installed capacity of 1,050 megawatts (MW), it has long been the country’s main power station, supplying close to half of the 2,200 MW total grid electricity demand. However, current statistics from the national power utility show that the station only produced 488 MW throughout September and slightly above that to date. A series of back-to-back droughts in recent years have seen the colossal turbines produce a fraction of expected output, despite multimillion-dollar upgrades to enhance efficiency.

In a desperate bid to address the climate-induced power crisis, energy authorities in Zimbabwe are surprisingly latching on to a robust revival of coal-fired thermal projects – a once condemned low-hanging fruit. Long viewed as a hurdle to green growth, the fossil fuel renaissance points to a subsequent abandoning of long-promised energy transition plans.

One step forward, two steps back… a transition into limbo

A government decision announced in September has set in motion the rebirth of age-old thermal power units, with a combined capacity of 920 MW, at the Hwange Station. The deal, worth over $450 million, will see the replacement of obsolete equipment on six units and follows the recent commissioning of Units 7 and 8, which added 600 MW, at a cost of $1.5 billion. Essentially, the exorbitant renewal of Hwange, owned by the national utility company –Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (Zesa) – makes it the largest local power plant, supplying close to two thirds to the grid.

While the energy production shift has helped reduce constant and lengthy power outages for industries, as well as grid-connected households, it’s a brazen diversion from the country’s energy transition plans outlined in the National Renewable Energy Policy (NREP) that was launched in 2019. The ambitious blueprint aimed at vigorously converting abundant clean power potential to fuel rapid socioeconomic development by the end of this decade. According to the NREP, Zimbabwe should have added 1,100 MW of clean and affordable energy from solar, biogas, wind, geothermal and small hydro sources by the end of 2025. About 10 per cent has been achieved instead, a dismal failure proving that the country’s shared aspirations to dump its four-decade old coal project, especially in times of energy deficit, will take more than lip service.

Talk is cheap!

On paper, the rare earth minerals–rich country possesses a comprehensive plan of how to transition into clean power use, with short- and long-term strategies pointing to green energy access for all and a complete fossil fuel phase out by 2050. Results obtained on the ground, however, prove that “clean” talk is cheap, and that without requisite action and funding, Zimbabwe’s transition remains a wave of hot air in the face of worsening energy poverty. To maintain commitment to a sustainable future, there is an urgent need for a comprehensively diversified energy approach that prioritizes practical implementation to ignite a transition that has so far fallen way behind schedule.

A realistic pathway for swift decarbonisation at a macroeconomic level should look beyond the scaling up of renewable energy production, and also encompass consistent research and constant incorporation of technological advancements. Recently, the country came up with an Energy Development Compact Policy in an apparent bid to enhance the local value chain, mainly through expanding clean power generation infrastructure. In the document, the government announced its intent to mobilize a total of $9.13 billion, half of it private investment, by 2030 for generation, transmission, distribution, off-grid electrification and clean cooking. With international lenders becoming increasingly sceptical about funding projects in Africa, the success of Zimbabwe’s plan will depend on the government’s ability to satisfy its end of the bargain through channelling meaningful resources to the renewables industry.

As a follow-up to the investment-favourable strategy, the government needs a raft of incentives and measures to de-risk local renewable energy projects, while also encouraging the adoption of innovative alternative financing.

Historically, independent power producers (IPPs) have raised concerns over high currency volatility issues hindering access to foreign funding. Given Zesa’s (then the sole offtaker) inability to pay timeously for privately generated electricity, the recently introduced liberalization of the energy market allowing IPPs to generate, sell and distribute the commodity to customers of their choice is encouraging. To solidify this good move, the government, as a major offtaker, will need to walk the talk by offering competitive payments as well. The truth is: an unclear line of sight between an investment and the returns promised fuels an investor’s reluctance to release funding.

Thinking outside the box

The glory days of Kariba hydropower as a clean power behemoth may be gone, but the same cannot be said for other virtually untapped clean energy sources. For example, placing solar energy’s immense potential in the front seat of a diversified energy mix that also incorporates the maximum potential of wind, small hydropower and biofuels would help mitigate risks associated with climate variability and ensure energy security. To remove any doubt on renewables capability as a key energy source, 40 of the 44 operative captive power projects (for own use) captured in the country’s compact strategy are solar PV – a testament to the technology’s reliability and cost effectiveness that local businesses have learned to embrace.

In fact, as the atmosphere gets drier, coupled with more than 300 days of sunlight in Zimbabwe annually, solar is fast becoming a no-brainer energy option of choice. This, in addition to a significant drop in solar energy technology prices globally, makes one wonder why the authorities prefer pouring resources into more expensive and dirty thermal power projects instead.

The successful implementation of Zimbabwe’s energy transition is a strategy that will need both innovative thinking and practicality rather than a collection of neatly structured ambitious plans. An ongoing revival of coal, even via supposedly clean generation technologies, reeks of carelessness, hell-bent on dimming prospects of green energy access for all by the time this century hits the halfway mark.

The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union | Global Dialogue.