Since 2019, Germany’s Climate Protection Act has had aimed to reduce Germany’s carbon emissions to zero by 2045. The incoming new government has to adhere to this law. Will it though?

The topic of the climate crisis barely made it into this winter’s election campaign – and when it did, many parties slammed the Energiewende (clean energy transition) as a wasteful enterprise owned by the Greens. The vote’s victors, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) led by Friedrich Merz, are now in the process of putting together a coalition government, almost certainly with the Social Democrats (SPD). Given the stagnant economy and new spending priorities for defense, the clean energy transition will not be a top priority – but it can’t, by law, be ignored either.

In Spiegel magazine, science editor Susanne Götze argues: ‘Merz wants to overturn the [last government’s] climate policy laws. But there is hardly any room for manoeuvre. The chancellor-to-be will have no choice but to pursue green policies.’

‘Earlier this year, CDU/CSU supported a range of energy policy reforms in the Bundestag,’ Sabrina Schulz, Director Germany of the European Initiative for Energy Security, told the author, for example the rollout of smart meters: ‘They and the SPD, too, want to accelerate the addition of renewable capacity through more efficient permitting processes.’

But there are issues on which the two parties diverge. ’Among the main bones of contention,’ says Schulz, ‘will be the future of the Climate and Transformation Fund and the Buildings Energy Law. The CDU/CSU wants to scrap the latter while the SPD doesn’t. And then there is carbon capture and storage. The SPD wants the technology reserved for hard to abate sectors while the CDU/CSU prefers it open to all sectors.’

It’s safe to assume that a CDU/CSU-led coalition will not drive climate protection forward or assume a leadership role on the international stage. When the CDU talks about climate protection these days, it’s usually in a negative context. Take, for example, its campaign website. ‘The energy crisis has changed our country,’ it announces. And here, conservatives are not referring to parched farmland, dried-out riverbeds, the Alps’ melted glaciers, or geosecurity challenges. On the contrary, the CDU charges that ‘higher prices and rising energy demand are unsettling the country.’

This is an exaggeration. While climate measures do impact energy pricing, there are a number of other factors, such as taxes and grid fees, that hike the price that consumers and industry pay. Moreover, industrial customers often receive special, subsidized rates. Actually, considering that energy prices had soared to astronomical heights during the winter of the 2022 to 2023 energy crisis, Germany has things nearly back to 2021 levels now – though at great cost.

Also, to say that Germany is being ‘unsettled’ by these modestly higher prices makes it sound like an old-fashioned grain riot could be in the offing, which is not the case. In fact, the majority of Germans (60 percent) stand behind the expansion of renewables. Only 15 percent oppose it. Nevertheless, Germans’ worry over the climate crisis has fallen behind migration, inflation, and social injustice.

‘Electricity,’ the party argues, ‘must quickly become noticeably cheaper for everyone.’ And how? One way is to lower ‘electricity taxes and grid fees.’ Bravo! These steps would be welcome indeed. Just last year, in fact, grid tariffs were reformed to the benefit of consumers in regions with a high share of renewables. Further tax breaks on retail electricity tariffs are not unrealistic. Later this year, the European Commission will publish recommendations on how to lower taxes on electricity in order to make the electrification of transport, heating and industry more attractive.

The good news continues for a bit: ‘We are for expanding grids, storage facilities, and all renewable energies,’ it claims. And the CDU, in line with almost all German parties, wants to double down on hydrogen, too: ‘The hydrogen core network must reach all economic regions. We produce hydrogen here and secure imports via the EU and international partnerships.’ But the CDU position includes opening the door to fossil-fuel and nuclear power to produce ‘low carbon’ hydrogen. In fact, hydrogen should be sourced from renewable electricity if Germany hopes to hit transition and climate targets.

Then, tragically, the 2025 election platform takes a turn for the worse on the issue of nuclear energy, and this will almost certainly complicate coalition negotiations the CDU claims it wants to resume the operation of the nuclear power plants. This isn’t going to happen since it is sky-high expensive, but also because the SPD is dead set against it.

Another thorny issue is heating. The outgoing government mandated that as of 2028 German homes and buildings could only install climate-friendly heating systems. The SPD supports the law as it is, in principle, but is open to adjustments. The CDU/CSU programme states that it wants to abolish ‘Habeck’s [the leaving minister for economic affairs and climate from the Greens] heating law.’ On German television on March 6, Merz spoke only of ’amending’ the law ’so that people can make their own decision.’ If this really means changing the substance of the law, the CDU might be frustrated: Germany has to meet European goals on heating.

Some observers worry that the CDU’s lip service to emissions pricing may be paper thin – or its revenues used to plug budgetary gaps. The next sectors up for inclusion are buildings and transportation, and the automobile industry in particular is close to the heart of German conservatives.

And, of course, everything hinges on the government’s approach to new debt. How much money will there be for climate? There will be opportunities in the huge, new extra-investment pot for infrastructure that CDU/CSU and SPD just agreed upon, for example for the rail system. But is this the historic end of the debt brake that will enable public authorities in Germany to finally ramp up climate spending?

‘For us, the basics are clear,’ said Katharina Reuter of the German Sustainable Economy Association (BNW): ‘We need more budgetary leeway to enable investments, a planned increase in the carbon price, a socially staggered climate rebate (Klimageld), and the courage to promote circular economic models in a targeted manner.’

With so much in the world in flux and money so thin, these kinds of requests hope on the bright side. It’s more likely that climate protection will be a grudging and tedious affair.

The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.