Despite a record rollout of renewables, expectations for a notably greener Germany have not been met. Environmental think tanks and NGOs are taking their gripes to court to make the German government comply with German law – and the coalitions’ own promises. Paul Hockenos reports.

Environmentalists heaved a tremendous sigh of relief when the current German government entered office in December 2021. Finally, they thought, after years of conservative stonewalling, there was a German administration – composed of social democrats, liberals, and greens – who were all about doubling down on climate policy. The coalition contract pledged a massive expansion of renewable energies, the phasing out of coal ’ideally’ by 2030, a ramped-up Climate Action Law, an increased CO₂ price, and a variety of other measures that would ensure that Germany hit its 2030 goals, and those beyond 2030 as well. German law stipulates that the country should be climate neutral by 2045.

Nearly three years later – and a year from the 2025 general election – those same climate-conscious voters are seething with discontent. Although the country is arguably within reach of reducing emissions by nearly two thirds – and renewables now cover 57 percent of power consumption – many of its measures, particularly in the fields of transportation, grid expansion, offshore wind buildout, and energy efficiency have fallen woefully short. In fact, so unhappy are the likes of Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth Germany (BUND), and Environmental Action Germany, among thousands other co-claimants, they have petitioned Germany’s highest court to demand a climate law that ‘protects fundamental rights and liberties, and sets forth concrete steps to reduce CO₂ emissions in the transport sector.’ The plaintiffs charge that the current, revamped version of the climate law is grossly insufficient.

’Instead of doing more for the climate, the federal government has actually weakened climate legislation,’ wrote Olaf Bandt, BUND chairperson, on the BUND website. ‘The Climate Action Law has been watered down and stripped of key elements. Climate protection is a human right… We demand responsibility, we demand climate protection that makes a good future possible.’

Climate positives

Indeed, the ruling coalition has been hobbled by fierce internal battles that have rendered it ineffective on several fronts, not least climate. It can nevertheless point to some achievements. Last year, Germany’s carbon emissions dipped by a full 10 percent, in large part a result of over a quarter less electricity generation from coal-fired power plants. The rapid buildout of solar PV and onshore wind has driven renewables growth by record-setting margins, a result largely of streamlined bureaucracy. In 2023, the first year that government’s own policies had full impact, newly installed solar PV capacity doubled over the previous year – and should make further gains this year. If renewables continue to overtake fossil fuels in the energy mix, coal will be driven out of the market by 2030. That’s the good news.

In fact, Sven Giegold, a state secretary in the German industry, climate, and energy ministry, said earlier this year, ‘Germany is on course for the first time to achieve its overall national climate targets. We have largely closed the 2030 climate gap that was a legacy of the [previous government].’

And, in a shoutout to electricity, Dirk Messner, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) president stated in July, ‘It is a success that the renewable share of electricity continues to grow.’ Yet, ‘the expansion figures make it clear that considerable efforts are still required. In the photovoltaic sector alone, we need an increase of around 50 percent in order to meet [targets].’

Not enough

At the heart of environmentalists’ multipronged critique is the reform of the Climate Action Law, Germany’s foremost blueprint. Among other plaintiffs, the Environmental Action Germany (DUH) claims that the new law is even weaker than the 2021 version because it eliminated sectoral requirements for emissions reduction in favor of a goal for the entire German economy. ’This ‘all-in-one-pot’ method obscures when and in which areas efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions need to be made,’ charges DUH, which lets laggards like the transportation sector off the hook.

Secondly, DUH argues that insufficient planning for the post-2030 period will jeopardize attainment of post-2030 goals. It argues: ’It is already clear that massive additional climate protection efforts will have to be made for this period. According to the current projection report, without additional measures, almost 300 million tons of CO₂ will be emitted between 2031 and 2040.’ Moreover, the current projection report underestimates future CO₂ emissions, it argues.

Climate Action Tracker, an independent project that tracks government climate policies, labels Germany’s progress as ’insufficient’ and charges that its current ’approach may make it nearly impossible to meet its 2045 climate neutrality target for all sectors.’ Not good news.

The transportation sector is Germany’s number one incendiary. Largely as a result of road traffic, the sector misses its annual targets year after year and isn’t likely to come close a cumulative reduction gap of 180 million tons of CO₂ equivalents by 2030. The ministry, headed by a free-market liberal, remains a champion of combustion engines and has failed to promote EVs and the building of charging stations. (This is one reason why the jewel in the German automobile sector’s crown, Volkswagen, is considering the closure of plants. Germany’s EVs aren’t selling in Europe and VW’s luxury models no longer sell in Asia.) The ministry refuses to set a speed limit and continues to push the construction of multilane motorways. Germany’s public transportation, particularly rail transportation, is notoriously underfunded – as well as the butt of jokes across Europe.

The buildings sector is nearly as inert, also missing its annual benchmarks. Half of German homes are heated with fossil gas and oil; and private households account for almost 40 percent of CO₂ emissions in Germany. While energy-efficiency renovations have the greatest potential to reduce carbon impact, they are costly, for example insulating buildings, and slow. The construction sector itself is an egregious user of materials, such as cement and steel, with sky-high greenhouse gas footprints. Although alternatives to traditional cement now exist, they are not being picked up and employed.

Finally, the buildout of the electricity grid – crucial to transport the new renewables load to where it is needed – has to takeoff. The relevant grid operators say that 1,800 km of grid is slated for approval this year and 1,600 km the year after. These measures include longer-length new builds, underground cable projects, and offshore grid connections in the North and Baltic Seas. According to a Reuters report, grid expansion could run Germany as much as 450 billion euros (USD 498.4 billion) if it really expects to have its power supply covered by 80 percent of renewable electricity by 2030. The Federal Network Agency, the Bundesnetzagentur, claims the electricity grid has to be grown by 4,800 km to come within reach of this target.

All of this progress – and lack of it – is happening against the backdrop of a sluggish economy that has yet to recover from the Covid pandemic. The Russian energy crisis – now over, according to Germany’s energy minister – also caused production of various kinds to slow. Should the economy pick up, as its US counterpart is doing, the Germans will be dealing with a new, much larger emissions footprint – thus making its 2030 goals even more of a challenge.

The views and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union.